global warming flashback

last friday the nixon library released 100,000 pages of presidential records. among those pages are memos that show the nixon administration was debating the possible effects of climate change.

a memo from nixons democratic advisor daniel moynihan:

Moynihan wrote in a September 1969 memo that it was "pretty clearly agreed" that carbon dioxide content would rise 25 percent by 2000, "This could increase the average temperature near the earth's surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit," he wrote. "This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter."

so how correct were those statements from 40 years ago?

regarding the CO2 levels:


















regarding the temperature increase:










regarding the sea level rise:













so moynihan predicted:
** a 25% increase in CO2 levels yet it appears that CO2 rose by 64%.
** a 7 degree fahrenheit rise in global temperature yet it only rose 0.6 degrees celsius or 1.08 degrees fahrenheit
** a 10 foot rise in sea level yet we only witnessed a 75mm or 2.9 inch rise. im sure residents of new york city and washington dc are grateful that my moynihans predictions of their cities being submerged were inaccurate.

so despite a carbon dioxide level increase that was more than double what was being predicted, the global temperature and sea level rise predictions were drastically off.

now, im not saying that we shouldnt do anything to get away from fossil fuel usage and move to renewable energy supplies. or that we shouldnt be doing things to generally protect the global environment. however, it has to be taken with a grain of salt when people start trying to predict what the climate will be like in 20, 40 or 100 years from now.

//